Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
