Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
